Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 1.987503 2.101490 2.221103 2.356416 2.505778 2.666231 2.852466
2025-07-20 1.843609 2.004850 2.182206 2.393412 2.640302 2.922618 3.274099
2025-07-27 1.756260 1.947088 2.164010 2.432100 2.759244 3.152035 3.669985
2025-08-03 1.663819 1.870730 2.111710 2.417999 2.804445 3.286951 3.954436
2025-08-10 1.587702 1.805787 2.064914 2.402126 2.839976 3.405883 4.223761
2025-08-17 1.518450 1.743481 2.015350 2.376262 2.856616 3.496660 4.459211
2025-08-24 1.457818 1.687606 1.969258 2.349769 2.867533 3.576884 4.684252
2025-08-31 1.416199 1.652712 1.946796 2.351169 2.913986 3.707758 4.997540
2025-09-07 1.383891 1.627532 1.934689 2.364365 2.975943 3.864170 5.368869
2025-09-14 1.336122 1.580131 1.890845 2.331011 2.968033 3.913980 5.569195
2025-09-21 1.291348 1.534705 1.847350 2.295268 2.953331 3.950623 5.749488
2025-09-28 1.246060 1.486892 1.798571 2.249314 2.919960 3.954115 5.869388
2025-10-05 1.229641 1.477085 1.801217 2.277343 3.001001 4.150533 6.380478
2025-10-12 1.216632 1.471175 1.808668 2.312327 3.094789 4.377128 6.993252
2025-10-19 1.205018 1.466476 1.817236 2.348880 3.193040 4.621138 7.693749
2025-10-26 1.177955 1.439667 1.793539 2.335559 3.209151 4.720152 8.098057
2025-11-02 1.152009 1.413505 1.769669 2.320561 3.221036 4.811874 8.504479
2025-11-09 1.124626 1.384497 1.740640 2.296115 3.215143 4.869037 8.839238
2025-11-16 1.098522 1.356517 1.712115 2.271065 3.206417 4.919515 9.168515
2025-11-23 1.081587 1.340857 1.700840 2.272390 3.243098 5.062689 9.780566
2025-11-30 1.068728 1.330506 1.696852 2.284868 3.299894 5.252429 10.580603
2025-12-07 1.044075 1.302760 1.666322 2.253324 3.275642 5.270631 10.875758
2025-12-14 1.019854 1.275078 1.635126 2.219501 3.245336 5.273196 11.125113